The Blog From Bali

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Attached is Bali Hi #2, prepared by Art Williams (Louisville, KY),

representing NACAA at the climate change negotiations in Bali.

So, how are the climate change negotiations going in Bali? Well,
don't
hold your breath. Negotiators came close to pulling an all-nighter
Tuesday night finally breaking at 2am. It now appears it will be up
to
the high-level ministers who rolled in today (Wednesday) to see what
can
be salvaged in the remaining couple of days. But, despite enormous
apparent pressure from multiple directions (many governments,
scientists, citizens, even business and industry) precious little
progress is actually being made--yet. The only notable clear progress
has been the creation of an Adaptation Fund to become operational in
2008 under the auspices, at least initially, of the World Bank, to
channel developed country money to impacted (developing) countries.

       There are lots of details to be worked out--like how much

money (estimates go as high as a need for $50 billion a year). But,
it
will start low, grow slow and maybe eventually reach a meaningful
amount. I'm guessing the rules will be very hard to craft. But, it's
clear that adaptation has arrived as an essentially co-equal partner
to
mitigation. There are two current, substantial stumbling blocks to
further progress in the effort to craft a "Bali Roadmap"--reduction
targets and technology transfer. Suffice it to say, the US (ably
aided
and abetted by Japan and Canada) has resisted the move toward a
clear,
significant target reduction level for the post Kyoto time frame.
However, there's clearly a huge consensus, based in large part on the
IPCC 4th Assessment Report, that there needs to be a target of a
25-40%
reduction below 1990 levels by 2020 to keep the warming at or below 2
degrees (centigrade) (in my next life I have to do a better job
learning
the metric system--the whole rest of the world is seamlessly facile
with
centigrade, kilometers, kilograms--I struggle with it).

      So far, the US ain't buying it. But, my money is on that's

where the next agreement will end up-albeit fought by the current US
administration. The world (at least in this arena) seems to be
willing
to put its chits on the near certainty of a more accommodating US
President on or about January 20, 2009. So, it seems that we're
likely
to leave Bali without the desired progress on this most key issue.
(By
the way--despite Bush's efforts to pull the rug from under there
being
a
next "Kyoto Protocol"-like, top-down international agreement, I sense
nothing in the works other than that. Also, it certainly seems that
the
current targets in the main US proposed federal legislation dovetails
nicely with this 25-40% range--not a coincidence I think. As to
technology transfer--how, might you ask, could there be many credible
challenges to technology transfer (helping get modern technologies to
the developing world)? Well, a funny thing happened on the way to the
Patent Office...the protection of intellectual property(IP) (read
this
as protecting the profits from IP) seems to be a key sticking point.

     Also, who pays for the transfers and other thorny issues

have
blocked agreement, thus far, on this key area. Also notable are
stronger efforts by the parties to more closely link trade,
development
and climate change policies. There was an informal meeting of top
trade
ministers this past weekend here who focused on how to better align
international trade policies with climate change goals. One
interesting
outcome from those discussions was a proposal to lift tariffs and
other
similar barriers to 43 categories of products or commodities the
wider
use of which would help climate change-like wind energy products.
But,
predictably, a tough issue that arose is the current US tariff on the
importation to the US of ethanol from Brazil (the US imposes a 54
cent
per gallon tariff). Also, there is growing international discussion
on
aligning poverty eradication goals with climate change goals.
Everybody's for eliminating poverty right? Right? Well, not exactly.
Unfortunately. Anyway, a key point being that as the standard of
living
rises, as well it should, per capita energy use will rise-and that's
where it gets sticky and thorny and complex. Some, in the climate
change
arena, want to effectively limit per capita energy use as a mechanism
to
reduce emissions. But, others have a hard time squaring that with
poverty elimination goals. So--an important area of policy that won't
be
easily moved forward.

     As indicated, the high-level ministers arrived today

(Wednesday) and began their work--beginning with the important
rhetorical flourishes at the start. (Though, there was some
somberness
as the recent tragedy in Algiers was noted where several UN staff
were
killed). The assembled masses were clearly deeply moved by the
presentation by the head of the Conference, Yves De Boer, who noted
the
substantial convergence of science and policy on climate change and
quoted Lincoln (nice touch) as having said that a country "...cannot
escape the responsibilities of tomorrow by evading them today". (this
earned a substantial round of applause).
He was followed by the new Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd, a
new crowd favorite. (Immediately upon his election as Prime Minister
last week the first thing he did was sign the Kyoto Protocol--the
only
other holdout besides the US). He noted that climate change is the
greatest moral and economic challenge of our age, the defining issue
of
our generation and that we are custodians not only of the planet but
also of the planet's future. He noted Australia's new commitment to
reduce ghg by 60% below 1990 levels by 2050, to get 20% of its energy
from renewables by 2020 and to implement a trading regime by 2010.
He
also strongly asserted that all developed countries must accept
binding
targets for the post Kyoto timeframe. This was all met with extremely
enthusiastic applause. I have more from Tuesday's side events but in
the
interest of (your) time I'll bump a report on those to the next
posting.

Create at: Wed Dec 12 21:31:26 -0600 2007

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